• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Sahar Dashtban Farooji; Hassan Dargahi
Abstract
The study of Iran's position in the international trade network of natural gas shows that although Iran is the second country with natural gas resources in the world and has a special position in the transit of natural gas, it is not an important player in the international trade network of natural gas. ...
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The study of Iran's position in the international trade network of natural gas shows that although Iran is the second country with natural gas resources in the world and has a special position in the transit of natural gas, it is not an important player in the international trade network of natural gas. One of the most important issues for the development of international gas trade is to examine the possibility of exporting Iran's natural gas in the near future. The present study tries to estimate and simulate an econometric model including macroeconomic and energy variables, analyze the outlook of domestic demand and balance of natural gas in different conditions of Iran's macroeconomics, and assess the feasibility of exporting natural gas. The simulation of different scenarios for the period 2022-2032 shows three findings. Firstly, continuing the current policies result in the undesirable trend of the TFP at the macroeconomic level and economic inefficiency in the energy sector. Secondly, macroeconomic policy reforms in order to raise economic growth result in a negative natural gas balance. Thirdly, for the reduction of energy intensity, the energy price reform is not a sufficient policy, and emphasizing the non-price factors towards technical progress in order to rise energy efficiency is important. In addition, making an investment decision for infrastructure development of potential natural gas supply is important as a necessary condition.
Hassan Dargahi; Mojtaba Ghorbannejad
Volume 1, Issue 4 , October 2012, , Pages 67-100
Abstract
In this paper the impacts of energy prices reform and the implementation of compensation policies are evaluated on major macroeconomics variables. For this purpose, a macroeconometrics model is estimated by ARDL approach, based on the annual time series data for the Iranian economy within the period ...
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In this paper the impacts of energy prices reform and the implementation of compensation policies are evaluated on major macroeconomics variables. For this purpose, a macroeconometrics model is estimated by ARDL approach, based on the annual time series data for the Iranian economy within the period 1976 and 2007. In the specification of the model, relations between energy prices and output, inflation, consumption, investment, government budget, trade balance with regards to the government compensation policies, are considered. Using the dynamic simulation, forecasting for the period 2011-2015 shows high inflation and low economic growth in the scenarios of energy prices reform with and without the compensation policies, but high growth just in case of productivity improvement. Thus, the success of the energy prices reform and the targeted subsidy plan depend on the productivity promotion through the supply-side policies.
Hasan Dargahi; Mina Bahrami Gholami
Volume 1, Issue 1 , January 2011, , Pages 73-99
Abstract
The greenhouse gas emissions as a result of human activities is considered the main factor in global warming. This subject is of greater importance in OPEC countries because of the dependency of OPEC economies on fossil fuels and their economic vulnerability in relation with climate changes conventions ...
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The greenhouse gas emissions as a result of human activities is considered the main factor in global warming. This subject is of greater importance in OPEC countries because of the dependency of OPEC economies on fossil fuels and their economic vulnerability in relation with climate changes conventions and the Kyoto Protocol. In this study, besides analyzing the extent of compliance with EKC in the OPEC and OECD countries, the most important factors influencing CO2 emission will be examined and also the policy implications of KEC for Iran will be studied. The findings indicate that firstly, the inverse U shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve is not confirmed for all the studied countries, including Iran. Secondly, manufacturing value added to GDP (as an industrial development index), trade to GDP (as the openness index), and energy consumption to GDP (the energy intensity index) are found to be the main macroeconomic determinants.
